What is the system tryping to predict?

ATACRAIDS (Automated Tactical Analysis of Crime Regional Analysis and Information Data Sharing) was a Bair Analytics product, which was acquired by LexisNexis Risk Solutions in January 2015. The system tries to predict crimes.

What data are the system’s predictions based on?

It’s unclear the exact data inputs ATACRAIDS uses, but given that “ATACRAIDS is updated through an automated data feed that works with any CAD or RMS,” it’s very likely that the main source of is historical crime data.

From a webinar about ATACRAIDS: "With ATAC RAIDS, it takes in the geographical component," said department crime analyst Kristen Kowalsky. "It maps it, it gives you a hotspot based on time of day, day of week, the frequency with which those crimes occur in a certain area. It takes all those factors into account and predict where it will happen in the future."

What approach does the system use to make its predictions? How is the data analyzed?

It’s unclear the exact techniques ATACRAIDS uses to arrive at its predictions.

Nevertheless, Lexis does say that the system is “[p]owered by a proprietary regression algorithm perfected by BAIR at the Department of Defense, Predictive Zones aim to prevent crime from happening in the first place.”

What do users of the system see or do?

It's unclear, but it appears that users see a hotspot-style map with predictive zones. It may look something like this:

ATACRAIDS also has a public-facing element, via raidsonline.com: “The software also allows interested citizens to sign up for alerts and view an interactive map of criminal activity in their area. The information included on the map is somewhat limited to protect the privacy of victims.”

It appears that this public-facing element does not showcase ATACRAIDS' "predictive zones," and instead only shows historical crime and hot spots.

How accurate are the predictions? How is accuracy defined and measured?

We're not aware of any independent analyeses of ATACRAIDS' efficacy.

Which departments are using the system?

  • Richland, WA

How do departments use the system?


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